• The government does not know how much population was affected by the epidemic in the second wave
  • Mathematical estimations are also failing in the country, not an accurate estimate of the spread of infection and death.
  • Estimates are being done on the same serosurvey for four months
  • ICMR has not yet decided on the fourth sero survey

While the government is talking about the spread of the epidemic on the basis of the serosurvey conducted in January, experts are waiting for a new serosurvey to know about the second wave. The government does not even know how much the population has been affected by the epidemic in the second wave. One disadvantage of this is that the mathematical estimates coming out about the spread of epidemics are also failing. Experts from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) are lobbying for a serosurvey, but top officials have not yet commented on it.

Looking at the current situation, there has not been a single serosurvey in the country for the past four months, whereas in the first nine months, serosurvey was done three times in the first nine months. During this survey, people were tested after taking blood samples from village to village, and antibodies were detected against corona. According to the statistics, since March 1 this year, more than one crore people have been infected in the country and more than one and a half lakh people have died. Whereas from January 2020 to 28 February 2021, there were 1.11 crore cases, and 1.57 lakh people died.

Recently, a member of NITI Aayog, Dr. VK Paul had said that the assessments being done at the international level are baseless. We can assume that the infection has spread to more populations in the country because it was detected only in the third serosurvey. At the same time, 0.05 percent mortality was detected, which is now 1.15 percent. Information about the current situation is not known.

Dr. Gagandeep Kang of CMC Vellore says that the only option to detect the spread of infection is serosurvey. He said how fast the second wave will move and how the graph will be down? The science world was already apprehensive about this. On the basis of the serosurvey, science had discovered that the new wave could engulf millions of people. Now, if we have to prepare for the upcoming wave, then first it has to be seen that what percentage of the population in the country has been affected by the infection.

Dr. Samiran Panda, Head of Infectious Diseases of ICMR, says that firstly in districts where the infection rate is high, there is a need to work very fast. Sero survey can also be helpful in this. He said that a quarter of the population was confirmed to be infected by the serosurvey in January, but it was also found that 75 percent of the population is in crisis, who is most in need of rescue.

Corona spread, now no use for sero survey
A senior ICMR official says that in the second wave, Corona has reached every village. They do not think that the serosurvey will be of any use now because we already know its results. However, a survey about vaccination is needed to find out what percentage of the population is in the security zone. It is also under consideration but the final decision has not been taken yet.

Survey required for mathematical assessment
University of Michigan Prof. According to Bhramak Mukherjee, there are more than 24.7 million cases in India but they estimate that this number is more than 49 crores, which indicates that 36% of the population is infected. Only two of the nine deaths in India are recorded on paper. It is important to have a serosurvey to prove our conjecture. Mathematical estimation should not be ignored in epidemics as it helps in deciding future policies.

First survey: In the survey conducted from May to June 2020, 0.73 percent of the population found antibodies.
Second Survey: From August to September 2020, 6.6% of the population is vulnerable to infection.
Third survey: infection of 21.4% of the population from December 2020 to January 2021.

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